Idorari ry’Amerika rikomeje kuzamuka ikibazo kitoroshye Ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda

Idorari ry’Amerika ryazamutse aho ubu riri kuvunja 1004 mu nzu zitanga serivice yo kuvunja amafaranga mu mujyi wa Kigali.

Ku mpuzandengo, umwaka wa 2011 warangiye idolari rya Amerika ($) riri kuvunja amafaranga y’u Rwanda 595 (Frw). Nyuma y’imyaka 10, Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda (BNR), yerekana ko kuwa 24 Gicurasi 2021, idolari ryari rigeze kuri 973 Frw, n’ubwo mu by’ukuri iri dolari riri kuvunja 1 004 Frw mu nzu zitanga serivisi z’ivunjisha mu Mujyi wa Kigali.

Kuva kuri 595 Frw kugera ku 1 004 Frw, ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatakaje agaciro ka 409 Frw, bingana n’izamuka rya 40% mu gihe cy’imyaka 10.

Kuri bamwe, iri zamuka ntirisanzwe, kuko ryagize ingaruka ku biciro by’ibicuruzwa bituruka hanze y’u Rwanda, kandi u Rwanda rukaba rukibikenera cyane kuko ikinyuranyo cy’ibyo rutumiza n’ibyo rwohereza hanze cyari miliyari 1.54$ mu mwaka wa 2019.

Izamuka ry’idolari ryatangiye kugaragara cyane mu mwaka wa 2012, kuko icyo gihe ryatangiye kugura arenga 600 Frw, rigera muri 700 Frw mu 2015, ryinjira muri 800 Frw muri 2018, rikomereza muri 900 Frw mu mwaka wakurikiyeho none ryinjiye mu 1000 Frw muri uyu mwaka.

Ni iki cyatumye idolari rizamuka muri ubu buryo?

Bitewe n’iri zamuka ry’idolari, hari abantu bazamuye amajwi bavuga ko ibi bigaragaza uburyo ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bujegajega, bakavuga ko hatagize igikorwa, ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rishobora kuzata agaciro mu buryo budasanzwe nk’uko byagenze muri Venezuela na Zimbabwe mu myaka yashize.

Ibi ariko ni ukwibeshya, kuko unarebye impuzandengo ya 40% ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatayeho agaciro mu myaka 10 ishize, ubona ko ari atari ikigero cy’umurengera, ugereranyije n’ibiba byitezwe, kuko ubundi ifaranga riba ritagomba guta agaciro ku kigero kirenze 5% ku mwaka.

Uretse umwaka wa 2015, ubwo ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatakazaga agaciro ku kigero cya 7,6%, na 2016 ubwo iki kigero cyageraga ku 9,7%, ndetse n’umwaka ushize ubwo cyageraga kuri 5,4%, ubusanzwe ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryakunze kwihagararaho, rigatakaza agaciro ku kigero kiri munsi ya 5%, ari nako byitezwe uyu mwaka kuko rizatakaza agaciro ku kigero kiri munsi ya 3%.

Mu kiganiro na IGIHE dukesha iyi nkuru, impuguke mu bukungu, Teddy Kaberuka, yavuze ko iri takazagaciro k’ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ugereranyije n’idolari, ari ibintu bisanzwe kandi bidateye impungenge ku bukungu bw’igihugu, kuko impamvu yabiteye ari iterambere riri kubakwa.

Yagize ati “Iyo ugiye kureba uburyo ifaranga rita agaciro, ntabwo ubirebera mu kantu kamwe, ahubwo ubirebera mu bukungu muri rusange. Uribaza uti ‘ese umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu muri icyo gihe wiyongereye gute? Ese ingano y’ibyo twohereza hanze n’ibyo dutumizayo ingana gute? Ese imishinga y’iterambere iri kubakwa mu gihugu ingana gute? Ibyo byose iyo ubirebye neza ni bwo ubona ishusho nzima y’uburyo ifaranga ryataye agaciro.”

Ku bijyanye n’izamuka ry’Umusaruro mbumbe w’u Rwanda, wavuye kuri miliyari 6,8$ muri 2011, ugera kuri miliyari 10.63$ muri 2021, inyongera ya miliyari 3,8$. Ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, bikubiyemo ibicuruzwa na serivisi, nabyo byarazamutse, biva kuri miliyari 1.389 Frw muri 2016 bigera kuri miliyari 1.869 Frw muri 2019, izamuka rya miliyari 480 Frw mu gihe cy’imyaka ine gusa, ringana na 35,8%.

Ku bijyanye n’ishoramari, umwaka wa 2016, ari nabwo ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatakazaga agaciro ku kigero kidasanzwe cya 9,7%, u Rwanda rwakiriye indege ebyiri zo mu bwoko bwa Airbus A300-200 na Airbus A300-300, zaguzwe arenga miliyoni 450$. Icyo gihe kandi u Rwanda rwari ruri mu mushinga yo kuzuza Kigali Convention Centre (KCC), imwe mu nyubako zihenze ku Mugabane wa Afurika, ndetse n’ibikorwa bindi by’ubwubatsi bw’amahoteli n’ibindi bikorwa remezo birimbanyije hirya no hino.

Kaberuka yavuze ko imishinga ikomeye nk’iyi ishobora kugira ingaruka ku itakazagaciro k’ifaranga ry’u Rwanda, ariko ibi ntibivuze ko ubukungu bw’igihugu buhagaze nabi, ahubwo byerekana ko buri kwaguka.

Yagize “Birumvikana ko iyo ukeneye amadolari menshi kugira ngo ukore ishoramari, niko aguhenda. Kuyakenera cyane bifite igisobanuro cy’uko imishinga y’ishoramari ikeneye amafaranga, kandi iyo mishinga ntabwo ihita igaruza amafaranga ku buryo wavuga ngo ya mishinga twashoyemo ihise yunguka ako kanya, ni imishinga y’igihe kirekire, niyo mpamvu ifaranga ribanza gutakaza agaciro mu gihe ya mishinga itarabyara inyungu.”

N’ubwo ishoramari ryakozwe n’u Rwanda ku mishinga ya KCC na RwandAir ritaratangira gutanga umusaruro, hari icyizere ko ibi bizagerwaho vuba ugereranyije n’uko iyo mishinga yari ihagaze mbere ya Covid-19.

Nka RwandAir, ubwo yaguraga ziriya ndege muri 2016, yari ifite intego yo kuzaba itwara abagenzi barenga miliyoni mu myaka itanu iri imbere, yagombaga kurangira muri uyu mwaka wa 2021. Uyu muhigo wesejwe nyuma y’imyaka itatu gusa, kuko muri 2019, RwandAir yatwaye abagenzi miliyoni 1.7.

Ku rundi ruhande, KKC ni kimwe mu bikorwa remezo by’ibanze byazamuye umubare w’inama zakirirwa mu Rwanda, ku buryo mu mwaka wa 2019, Kigali yari ku mwanya wa kabiri mu kwakira inama nyinshi ku Mugabane wa Afurika, zari ziteganyijwe kwinjiza miliyoni 88$, zivuye kuri miliyoni 56$ zari zinjijwe mu mwaka wa 2018.

Kaberuka yavuze ko ibyo bipimo bitanga icyizere, ati “Kuba ifaranga ryarazamutse mu buryo bufite ibisobanuro, nta kibazo kirimo. Kuba dufite ibikorwa remezo bifatika bigaragarira amaso, wenda uyu munsi twaba dufite ifaranga ryataye agaciro ugereranyije n’iry’amahanga, ariko ibintu nibusubira mu buryo, iri shoramari rigatangira kubyara umusaruro ryitezweho, ibintu bishobora kuzahinduka.”

U Rwanda rwaba rwaratesheje agaciro ifaranga ryarwo ku bushake?

Rimwe na rimwe, gutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga ry’igihugu runaka bigirira akamaro ubukungu bwacyo, ndetse hari ibihugu bitesha agaciro ifaranga ryabyo ku bushake nk’imwe mu nzira yo kubaka iterambere.

Urugero rworoshye ni u Bushinwa. Iki gihugu cya kabiri mu bukungu bunini ku rwego rw’Isi, giherutse kugabanya agaciro k’ifaranga ryabwo mu mwaka ushize, ndetse bwari bwanabikoze mu mwaka wa 2015, kandi byakozwe na Leta ku bushake, kubera inyungu z’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga.

Ubusanzwe, nk’iyo ugiye kurangura ibucuruzwa mu gihugu runaka, uvunja amadolari mu mafaranga y’icyo gihugu. Iyo rero ifaranga ryataye agaciro, ukoresha amadolari macye ukabona amafaranga y’igihugu menshi kurusha mbere, noneho nawe ugahaha byinshi mu gihugu kuko bitaba bihenze nka mbere. Ibi rero bizamura umusaruro w’ibikorerwa imbere mu gihugu, kuko kirushaho gucuruza byinshi hanze yacyo.

Kaberuka yavuze ko uko gutesha agaciro ifaranga ku bushake “Bishobora kongera ibyo igihugu cyohereza mu mahanga. Ibyo bivuze ko inganda zongera umusaruro, zigatanga akazi ku bantu benshi, zikongera umusoro bityo ubukungu bugatera imbere.”

Mu mwaka wa 2015, u Rwanda rwatangije gahunda ya ‘Made in Rwanda’ yari igamije n’ubundi kongera ibyo rwohereza mu mahanga, bityo rukagabanya ikinyuranyo cy’ibyo rutumizayo, binagira uruhare runini mu itakazagaciro k’ifaranga ry’u Rwanda.

Kaberuka yavuze ko bidashoboka ko u Rwanda rwaba rwaratesheje agaciro ifaranga ryarwo ku bushake kubera gahunda ya ‘Made in Rwanda’, kuko rutaragira ubushobozi bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa byinshi hanze yarwo.

Ati “Twebwe ntabwo turagira ibintu byinshi byo kohereza mu mahanga. [Gutesha agaciro ifaranga ry’igihugu] bigira akamaro iyo igihugu gifite ubushobozi bwo gukorera ibicuruzwa byinshi mu nganda zabyo, ku buryo byoherezwa mu bindi bihugu ari byinshi.”

Ku rundi ruhande, abanyagihugu bafite ifaranga ryatakaje agaciro bagorwa no kubona amadolari yatuma bakomeza kugura ibicuruzwa byo mu bindi bihugu, bityo bagahitamo gushaka ibicuruzwa by’imbere mu gihugu, noneho inganda n’ibindi bigo by’ubucuruzi bikabona isoko rinini bityo bikarushaho gutera imbere.

Kaberuka kandi yavuze ko bishoboka ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rishobora kuzasubirana agaciro karenze ako rifite ugereranyije n’idolari magingo aya, ariko yongeraho ko “Icyangombwa si agaciro k’ifaranga ugereranyije n’irindi, icyangombwa ni agaciro k’icyo ifaranga rishobora kugura.”

Iyi mpuguke yavuze ko kuzamuka kw’ibiciro ku masoko no gutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga, ari “Ikiguzi cy’iterambere igihugu cyose kigomba kunyuramo”, ariko bikaba umwihariko ku gihugu nk’u Rwanda kidafite umutungo kamere uhagije wagishoboza kwinjiza amadolari menshi gitakaza mu kubaka ibikorwa by’iterambere.

Iri zamuka risobanuye iki ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda mu myaka iri imbere?

Birumvikana ko itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga ry’igihugu rigira ingaruka zikomeye ku biciro ku masoko, cyane cyane mu bihugu bigitumiza ibicuruzwa byinshi hanze nk’u Rwanda.

Kaberuka yavuze ko izo ngaruka ntaho zizajya, n’ubwo ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzakomeza kuzamuka nk’uko byari byitezwe, ndetse bikazaba akarusho ubwo ishoramari u Rwanda rwakoze mu bikorwa bitandukanye rizaba ritangiye gutanga umusaruro ufatika, wiyongera kuwo byatangiye kwerekana.

Uku gutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga ry’u Rwanda kandi bizakomeza kugira ingaruka nziza kuri gahunda ya ‘Made in Rwanda’, kuko inganda zo mu Rwanda zizongera umusaruro w’ibyo zicuruza, kandi uyu mugambi ushyigikiwe na Leta iherutse kwemeza gahunda ya MBRP, izafasha inganda kwigobotora ingaruka z’icyorezo cya Covid-19. Iyi gahunda izinjiza miliyari zirenga 1 000 Frw mu bukungu bw’u Rwanda, ndetse ihange imirimo mishya irenga 27 000.

Birashoboka cyane kandi ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rizakomeza gutakaza agaciro ugereranyije n’idolari, gusa Kaberuka akavuga ko ibi nta mpungenge bikwiye gutera abantu, ati “Niko iterambere rimera, ibiciro kuba bizamuka ku masoko ntabwo ari ikibazo, hari urugero rwiza ibiciro bizamukaho [biri munsi ya 5%] ukabona ko nta kibazo kuko biterwa n’iterambere ririmo kubaho.”

Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka ku kigero cya 5,7% uyu mwaka, ndetse na 6,8% mu mwaka utaha.

IGIHE